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Canada

Liberal Party of Canada



Latest update: March 17, 2024

LeaderJustin Trudeau
National popular vote in 202132.6%
Current vote projection24.4% ± 3.2%
Current number of MP's158
Current seat projection64 [43-90]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | March 17, 2024 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% Vote efficiency | LPC 338Canada ©2023 8.4 seat/% 64 [43-90] 24% ± 3% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × LPC 64 [43-90] March 17, 2024 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 2/7 PEI 1/4 NS 2/11 NB 4/10 QC 25/78 ON 22/121 MB 4/14 SK 0/14 AB 0/34 BC 4/42 YK NWT NU

Popular vote projection | March 17, 2024

17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 21.2% 24.4% ± 3.2% Max. 27.6% Probabilities % LPC

Seat projection | March 17, 2024

13 23 33 43 53 63 73 83 93 103 113 2.8% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Min. 43 64 Max. 90 Probabilities % LPC

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel LPC safe hold >99%
2. Scarborough North LPC safe hold >99%
3. Acadie–Bathurst LPC safe hold >99%
4. Scarborough–Rouge Park LPC safe hold >99%
5. Markham–Thornhill LPC safe hold >99%
6. Bourassa LPC safe hold >99%
7. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe hold >99%
8. Humber River–Black Creek LPC safe hold >99%
9. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount LPC safe hold >99%
10. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe hold >99%
11. Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle LPC safe hold >99%
12. Hull–Aylmer LPC safe hold >99%
13. Scarborough–Guildwood LPC safe hold >99%
14. Brossard–Saint-Lambert LPC safe hold >99%
15. Surrey–Newton LPC safe hold >99%
16. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe hold >99%
17. Saint-Laurent LPC safe hold >99%
18. Vimy LPC safe hold >99%
19. Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe hold >99%
20. Beaches–East York LPC safe hold >99%
21. Gatineau LPC safe hold >99%
22. Pierrefonds–Dollard LPC safe hold >99%
23. York South–Weston LPC safe hold >99%
24. Vaudreuil–Soulanges LPC safe hold >99%
25. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe hold >99%
26. St. John’s South–Mount Pearl LPC likely hold 99%
27. Laval–Les Îles LPC likely hold 99%
28. Don Valley East LPC likely hold 99%
29. Beauséjour LPC likely hold 99%
30. Winnipeg South Centre LPC likely hold 99%
31. Alfred-Pellan LPC likely hold 98%
32. Mount Royal LPC likely hold 98%
33. Papineau LPC likely hold 96%
34. LaSalle–Émard–Verdun LPC likely hold 96%
35. Etobicoke North LPC likely hold 95%
36. Halifax West LPC likely hold 94%
37. Vancouver South LPC likely hold 93%
38. Scarborough Centre LPC likely hold 93%
39. Surrey Centre LPC likely hold 93%
40. Toronto Centre LPC likely hold 90%
41. Ajax LPC leaning hold 87%
42. Winnipeg North LPC leaning hold 87%
43. University–Rosedale LPC leaning hold 85%
44. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC leaning hold 82%
45. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC leaning hold 81%
46. Ottawa–Vanier LPC leaning hold 81%
47. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC leaning hold 81%
48. Mississauga Centre LPC leaning hold 74%
49. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC leaning hold 74%
50. Brampton East LPC leaning hold 72%
51. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC leaning hold 70%
52. Vancouver Centre LPC leaning hold 70%
53. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
54. Toronto–St. Paul’s Toss up LPC/CPC 64%
55. Winnipeg South Toss up LPC/CPC 60%
56. Saint-Maurice–Champlain Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 60%
57. Hochelaga Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ 58%
58. Outremont Toss up LPC/NDP 58%
59. Scarborough–Agincourt Toss up LPC/CPC 57%
60. Pontiac Toss up LPC/CPC 56%
61. Cardigan Toss up LPC/CPC 53%
62. St. John’s East Toss up LPC/NDP 52%
63. Don Valley North Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
64. Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP 50%
65. Mississauga–Malton Toss up LPC/CPC 46%
66. Brampton North Toss up LPC/CPC 46%
67. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP 44%
68. Sherbrooke Toss up LPC/BQ 42%
69. Burnaby North–Seymour Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
70. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC 38%
71. Ottawa South Toss up LPC/CPC 37%
72. Laurier–Sainte-Marie Toss up LPC/NDP 35%
73. Vancouver Quadra Toss up LPC/CPC 33%
74. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine Toss up LPC/BQ 30%
75. Charlottetown Toss up LPC/CPC 30%
76. North Vancouver Toss up LPC/CPC 30%
77. Québec Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 30%
78. Northwest Territories NDP leaning gain 29%
79. Egmont CPC leaning gain 28%
80. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook Toss up LPC/CPC 26%
81. Milton CPC leaning gain 25%
82. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne BQ leaning gain 25%
83. Spadina–Fort York NDP leaning gain 24%
84. Orléans CPC leaning gain 24%
85. Fleetwood–Port Kells CPC leaning gain 23%
86. Kings–Hants CPC leaning gain 22%
87. Toronto–Danforth NDP leaning gain 20%
88. Labrador CPC leaning gain 18%
89. Mississauga East–Cooksville CPC leaning gain 18%
90. Steveston–Richmond East CPC leaning gain 17%
91. Parkdale–High Park NDP leaning gain 15%
92. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 14%
93. Mississauga–Erin Mills CPC leaning gain 14%
94. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation BQ leaning gain 14%
95. Saint John–Rothesay CPC leaning gain 13%
96. Vancouver Granville CPC leaning gain 13%
97. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 13%
98. Davenport NDP leaning gain 12%
99. Central Nova CPC leaning gain 12%
100. Avalon CPC leaning gain 12%
101. Brampton Centre CPC leaning gain 11%
102. Guelph CPC leaning gain 10%
103. Delta CPC likely gain 9%
104. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam CPC likely gain 9%
105. Willowdale CPC likely gain 9%
106. Cape Breton–Canso CPC likely gain 9%
107. Compton–Stanstead Toss up CPC/BQ 8%
108. Malpeque CPC likely gain 8%
109. Don Valley West CPC likely gain 7%
110. Waterloo CPC likely gain 7%
111. Markham–Stouffville CPC likely gain 7%
112. Châteauguay–Lacolle BQ likely gain 6%
113. Mississauga–Lakeshore CPC likely gain 6%
114. Mississauga–Streetsville CPC likely gain 6%
115. Thunder Bay–Superior North CPC leaning gain 6%
116. Etobicoke–Lakeshore CPC likely gain 5%
117. Louis-Hébert CPC likely gain 5%
118. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country CPC likely gain 5%
119. Brome–Missisquoi BQ likely gain 4%
120. Ottawa West–Nepean CPC likely gain 4%
121. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas CPC likely gain 3%
122. Etobicoke Centre CPC likely gain 2%
123. Eglinton–Lawrence CPC likely gain 2%
124. Nepean CPC likely gain 2%
125. Calgary Skyview CPC likely gain 2%
126. London North Centre CPC likely gain 2%
127. Pickering–Uxbridge CPC likely gain 2%
128. York Centre CPC likely gain 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel LPC safe hold
2. Scarborough North LPC safe hold
3. Acadie–Bathurst LPC safe hold
4. Scarborough–Rouge Park LPC safe hold
5. Markham–Thornhill LPC safe hold
6. Bourassa LPC safe hold
7. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe hold
8. Humber River–Black Creek LPC safe hold
9. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount LPC safe hold
10. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe hold
11. Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle LPC safe hold
12. Hull–Aylmer LPC safe hold
13. Scarborough–Guildwood LPC safe hold
14. Brossard–Saint-Lambert LPC safe hold
15. Surrey–Newton LPC safe hold
16. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe hold
17. Saint-Laurent LPC safe hold
18. Vimy LPC safe hold
19. Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe hold
20. Beaches–East York LPC safe hold
21. Gatineau LPC safe hold
22. Pierrefonds–Dollard LPC safe hold
23. York South–Weston LPC safe hold
24. Vaudreuil–Soulanges LPC safe hold
25. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe hold
26. St. John’s South–Mount Pearl LPC likely hold
27. Laval–Les Îles LPC likely hold
28. Don Valley East LPC likely hold
29. Beauséjour LPC likely hold
30. Winnipeg South Centre LPC likely hold
31. Alfred-Pellan LPC likely hold
32. Mount Royal LPC likely hold
33. Papineau LPC likely hold
34. LaSalle–Émard–Verdun LPC likely hold
35. Etobicoke North LPC likely hold
36. Halifax West LPC likely hold
37. Vancouver South LPC likely hold
38. Scarborough Centre LPC likely hold
39. Surrey Centre LPC likely hold
40. Toronto Centre LPC likely hold
41. Ajax LPC leaning hold
42. Winnipeg North LPC leaning hold
43. University–Rosedale LPC leaning hold
44. Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe LPC leaning hold
45. Madawaska–Restigouche LPC leaning hold
46. Ottawa–Vanier LPC leaning hold
47. Saint Boniface–Saint Vital LPC leaning hold
48. Mississauga Centre LPC leaning hold
49. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC leaning hold
50. Brampton East LPC leaning hold
51. Dartmouth–Cole Harbour LPC leaning hold
52. Vancouver Centre LPC leaning hold
53. Brampton West Toss up LPC/CPC
54. Toronto–St. Paul’s Toss up LPC/CPC
55. Winnipeg South Toss up LPC/CPC
56. Saint-Maurice–Champlain Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
57. Hochelaga Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ
58. Outremont Toss up LPC/NDP
59. Scarborough–Agincourt Toss up LPC/CPC
60. Pontiac Toss up LPC/CPC
61. Cardigan Toss up LPC/CPC
62. St. John’s East Toss up LPC/NDP
63. Don Valley North Toss up LPC/CPC
64. Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP
65. Mississauga–Malton Toss up LPC/CPC
66. Brampton North Toss up LPC/CPC
67. Halifax Toss up LPC/NDP
68. Sherbrooke Toss up LPC/BQ
69. Burnaby North–Seymour Toss up LPC/CPC
70. Brampton South Toss up LPC/CPC
71. Ottawa South Toss up LPC/CPC
72. Laurier–Sainte-Marie Toss up LPC/NDP
73. Vancouver Quadra Toss up LPC/CPC
74. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine Toss up LPC/BQ
75. Charlottetown Toss up LPC/CPC
76. North Vancouver Toss up LPC/CPC
77. Québec Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
78. Northwest Territories NDP leaning gain
79. Egmont CPC leaning gain
80. Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook Toss up LPC/CPC
81. Milton CPC leaning gain
82. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne BQ leaning gain
83. Spadina–Fort York NDP leaning gain
84. Orléans CPC leaning gain
85. Fleetwood–Port Kells CPC leaning gain
86. Kings–Hants CPC leaning gain
87. Toronto–Danforth NDP leaning gain
88. Labrador CPC leaning gain
89. Mississauga East–Cooksville CPC leaning gain
90. Steveston–Richmond East CPC leaning gain
91. Parkdale–High Park NDP leaning gain
92. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
93. Mississauga–Erin Mills CPC leaning gain
94. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation BQ leaning gain
95. Saint John–Rothesay CPC leaning gain
96. Vancouver Granville CPC leaning gain
97. Yukon Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
98. Davenport NDP leaning gain
99. Central Nova CPC leaning gain
100. Avalon CPC leaning gain
101. Brampton Centre CPC leaning gain
102. Guelph CPC leaning gain
103. Delta CPC likely gain
104. Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam CPC likely gain
105. Willowdale CPC likely gain
106. Cape Breton–Canso CPC likely gain
107. Compton–Stanstead Toss up CPC/BQ
108. Malpeque CPC likely gain
109. Don Valley West CPC likely gain
110. Waterloo CPC likely gain
111. Markham–Stouffville CPC likely gain
112. Châteauguay–Lacolle BQ likely gain
113. Mississauga–Lakeshore CPC likely gain
114. Mississauga–Streetsville CPC likely gain
115. Thunder Bay–Superior North CPC leaning gain
116. Etobicoke–Lakeshore CPC likely gain
117. Louis-Hébert CPC likely gain
118. West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country CPC likely gain
119. Brome–Missisquoi BQ likely gain
120. Ottawa West–Nepean CPC likely gain
121. Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas CPC likely gain
122. Etobicoke Centre CPC likely gain
123. Eglinton–Lawrence CPC likely gain
124. Nepean CPC likely gain
125. Calgary Skyview CPC likely gain
126. London North Centre CPC likely gain
127. Pickering–Uxbridge CPC likely gain
128. York Centre CPC likely gain