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Canada

Bloc Québécois



Latest update: March 17, 2024

LeaderYves-François Blanchet
National popular vote in 20217.6% (QC: 32.1%)
Current vote projection7.2% ± 0.7% (QC: 30.6% ± 3.7%)
Current number of MP's32
Current seat projection36 [30-41]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | March 17, 2024 45 40 35 30 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% Vote efficiency | BQ 338Canada ©2023 1.5 seat/% 36 [30-41] 31% ± 4% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × BQ 36 [30-41] March 17, 2024 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 0/7 PEI 0/4 NS 0/11 NB 0/10 QC 36/78 ON 0/121 MB 0/14 SK 0/14 AB 0/34 BC 0/42 YK NWT NU

Popular vote projection | March 17, 2024

22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 26.9% 30.6% ± 3.7% 2021 32.1% Max. 34.3% Probabilities % BQ

Seat projection | March 17, 2024

23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 30 2021 32 seats 36 Max. 41 Probabilities % BQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Bloc Québécois



Rank Electoral districts Province Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia BQ safe hold >99%
2. Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères BQ safe hold >99%
3. Joliette BQ safe hold >99%
4. Repentigny BQ safe hold >99%
5. Beloeil–Chambly BQ safe hold >99%
6. Rivière-du-Nord BQ safe hold >99%
7. Montcalm BQ safe hold >99%
8. Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques BQ safe hold >99%
9. Abitibi–Témiscamingue BQ safe hold >99%
10. Laurentides–Labelle BQ safe hold >99%
11. Salaberry–Suroît BQ safe hold >99%
12. Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot BQ safe hold >99%
13. Saint-Jean BQ safe hold >99%
14. Mirabel BQ safe hold >99%
15. Bécancour–Nicolet–Saurel BQ safe hold >99%
16. Terrebonne BQ safe hold >99%
17. Shefford BQ safe hold >99%
18. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles BQ safe hold >99%
19. Montarville BQ safe hold >99%
20. La Prairie BQ safe hold >99%
21. Thérèse-De Blainville BQ safe hold >99%
22. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ safe hold >99%
23. Berthier–Maskinongé BQ safe hold >99%
24. Longueuil–Saint-Hubert BQ safe hold >99%
25. Drummond BQ safe hold >99%
26. Manicouagan BQ likely hold 99%
27. Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou BQ likely hold 98%
28. Châteauguay–Lacolle BQ likely gain 94%
29. Brome–Missisquoi BQ likely gain 92%
30. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ likely hold 90%
31. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation BQ leaning gain 86%
32. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne BQ leaning gain 75%
33. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine Toss up LPC/BQ 70%
34. Compton–Stanstead Toss up CPC/BQ 64%
35. Sherbrooke Toss up LPC/BQ 57%
36. Québec Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 52%
37. Jonquière Toss up CPC/BQ 45%
38. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ 31%
39. Saint-Maurice–Champlain Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ 28%
40. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC leaning hold 26%
41. Hochelaga Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ 19%
42. Beauport–Limoilou CPC likely gain 3%
43. Trois-Rivières CPC likely gain 3%
44. Louis-Hébert CPC likely gain 3%
45. Alfred-Pellan LPC likely hold 2%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia BQ safe hold
2. Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères BQ safe hold
3. Joliette BQ safe hold
4. Repentigny BQ safe hold
5. Beloeil–Chambly BQ safe hold
6. Rivière-du-Nord BQ safe hold
7. Montcalm BQ safe hold
8. Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques BQ safe hold
9. Abitibi–Témiscamingue BQ safe hold
10. Laurentides–Labelle BQ safe hold
11. Salaberry–Suroît BQ safe hold
12. Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot BQ safe hold
13. Saint-Jean BQ safe hold
14. Mirabel BQ safe hold
15. Bécancour–Nicolet–Saurel BQ safe hold
16. Terrebonne BQ safe hold
17. Shefford BQ safe hold
18. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles BQ safe hold
19. Montarville BQ safe hold
20. La Prairie BQ safe hold
21. Thérèse-De Blainville BQ safe hold
22. La Pointe-de-l’Île BQ safe hold
23. Berthier–Maskinongé BQ safe hold
24. Longueuil–Saint-Hubert BQ safe hold
25. Drummond BQ safe hold
26. Manicouagan BQ likely hold
27. Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou BQ likely hold
28. Châteauguay–Lacolle BQ likely gain
29. Brome–Missisquoi BQ likely gain
30. Lac-Saint-Jean BQ likely hold
31. Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation BQ leaning gain
32. Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne BQ leaning gain
33. Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine Toss up LPC/BQ
34. Compton–Stanstead Toss up CPC/BQ
35. Sherbrooke Toss up LPC/BQ
36. Québec Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
37. Jonquière Toss up CPC/BQ
38. Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix Toss up CPC/BQ
39. Saint-Maurice–Champlain Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
40. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC leaning hold
41. Hochelaga Toss up LPC/NDP/BQ
42. Beauport–Limoilou CPC likely gain
43. Trois-Rivières CPC likely gain
44. Louis-Hébert CPC likely gain
45. Alfred-Pellan LPC likely hold